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Introduction: Knowing the timing and magnitude of the pubertal growth spurt in the individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is essential for the prognosis of curve progression and treatment options. The average range of age for the growth spurt to occur in the general population is too wide to make accurate predictions in the individual patient, and no other methods were found to be reliable.
Objectives: The goal of this study was to develop a simple mathematical model to predict the growth curve, as well as the timing of the pubertal peak growth velocity of an individual child.
Materials and Methods: A mathematical model was developed in which only a few length measurements of a child are needed. The individual data are linked to a generic growth function in an innovative way, with help of a least squares method. Result is a growth curve of the individual from which the peak growth velocity can be calculated. The model will be validated with longitudinal growth data of 1349 boys and 1246 girls from 8 to 16 years.
Results: Pilot work with the mathematical model showed promising results and accurate predictions of the pubertal growth spurt. Results of the validation study will be available in June 2010.
Conclusion: A simple mathematical model was developed which is capable of producing predictive individual growth curves.
Significance: This model can be of huge added value in decision making regarding adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, as well as many other paediatric disorders.
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